Alito Will Lose If...

One opinion on the chances of Alito being appointed:

"...That appears to point to serious trouble as it gives the Republicans the 50 Senators they need, but there are other Republicans who I don't think will go nuclear. DeWine and Graham seem like strange signatories and I think that they only signed because they know that it won't happen and it allows other Senators to remain closeted against the nuclear option.

Specter is chief among those, he didn't sign the agreement because the leadership wasn't involved (and his chairmanship was at stake) but he hinted strongly that he won't go nuclear. I would consider Murkowski as she is pro-Choice and Alaska values "rugged individuals", John Ensign in part because of the protection he is getting from Reid, Lugar is also relatively reasonable and probably doesn't want to destroy the Senate. Several Republicans in bluer states will have to think long and hard before they are ready to press the Big Red Button and dismantle the Senate; Judd Greg (NH), John Sununu (NH), George Voinovich (OH), and Gordon Smith (OR) are Senators who I think are open to seeing reason on the Nuclear Option given enough pressure from their constituents.

The political calculus is in our favour this time relative to encouraging the Republicans to break ranks and vote their conscience. I count to only 49 on my most pessimistic reading, that is the 55 (R) - 7 (Gang of 14) + 2 (DeWine and Graham) - 1 (Specter) = 49. That is very close which is why I am glad there are others who I think are willing to consider backing down. The party whip is weakened and the wind is blowing in our favour. The Nuclear Option is one of the worst abuses of the Senate that this cabal has attempted when push comes to shove, I don't think that they have the votes.

If the filibuster is indeed broken, I think that "Scalito" will indeed make the court. There are some pro-Choice Republicans but there are enough pro-Life Dems that I don't think we can get 51 against the Judge if we can't get 51 against going Nuclear.

I expect that this nomination will not make through to a confirmation, because I don't think that it will make it to a vote. Putting our foot down at this point is the right thing to do and a vote winner in most of the country, especially where Senators are going to be up for re-election. We have been saving and preparing for this fight for a long time, and I think we can win it."